Growth and Transformation Plan of Ethiopia Revisited: Part I


 

Historicallythe AfCoP- MfDR site witnessed the most popular blog it has ever seen: theGrowth and Transformation Plan of Ethiopia (2010/11-2014/15) registering morethan 3200 hits to date. This prompted to follow on the knowledge and experience sharing on the issue. Since then I decided to enlighten the readers of the blogby offering some detail on the recently endorsed Ethiopian MDG based PRSP plan called the Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP). Video postings of the public discussion and the campaigns on GTP have also been attached in this site to show case the practice. The GTP has been circulated around for more than couple of months and finally endorsed by the House of People’s Representatives (HoPR), the Parliament, on December 2, 2010. The following blogs gives to all readers the possibility to have a first-hand brief overview of the document. If you have any comments or suggestions you are most welcomed! Contact the blogger at tamiratyc@yahoo.com 

 

 

The Growth and Transformationplan (2010/11-2014/15) of Ethiopia has been endorsed by the House of People’sRepresentatives (HoPR) in early December 2010. As earlier blogs in this siteshowed it has gone through the different levels of "public" and "stakeholders" discussion. People have expressed their enthusiasm and skepticism. Some showedtheir support saying it is achievable, the one to transform the country to thenext level, a tool to help Ethiopia achieve more results and the MDGs, etc; though some expressed their frustration and criticized the plan saying it is overambitious, too political, unachievable, and even some had the opinion thatit is filled with some buzz words like ‘poverty reduction’, ‘decentralization’,‘community participation’ etc.  Everyone is, I believe, entitled to have his/her opinion and in that they may have a  point or two or even more in their praises or critics. Let them express what they fill, after all i belive that freedom of expression should be respected in all times, and what they have got to say. I strongly believe that Democracy and good governance are built on such ways. If we want to see change, a sustained development in all dimension and achieving the MDGs democracy and good governance are critical foundations for sustainable development that Ethiopia needs. Are we commited as a nation to do that? Is the government ready to pursue the flow of ideas and change the governance picture? Is clear accountability put in place and in practice not as a rehtoric? How are we to fight corruption at every level which is hurting the poor in many ways? The strength of the Civil Society for balanced voices, is the government ready to involve them much in many ways and impartialiy? Many things should be answered. This is an era for openees and open dialogue even with those who don't even agree with us and who all read this would agree on that and pursue indefinately for the flow of ideas and freedom for development and improved good governance.

 

“The first principle of a free society is an untrammeled flow of words in an open forum’’….Adlai E. Stevenson



The purpose of this blog is to give you some brief description of the contents of the plan and also the critics and comments given by stakeholders on it. And consecutively will present my personal reflection on policy and strategic issues and the whole process.

 

N.B: The information presented  here is taken from the Amharic Version of the document presented to the House of people’s representatives for discusion (Nov 25- December 2, 2010) and i translated to English.

 

Part One: The Contents of GTP: A brief summary


‘Achieving broad-based,accelerating and sustained economic growth and hence alleviating poverty hasbeen and is the objective of the Government of Ethiopia’ is the first line thatyou may read in the introductory part of the GTP. It is the root for the newhighly promoted, popular GTP plan and had also been the overarching agenda inthe predecessor plan called Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development toEnd Poverty (PASDEP) (2005/06-2009/10). The next five year’s plan GTP (2010/11-2014/15),carries forward important strategic directions pursued under the PASDEP andexpected that beyond maintaining the fast growing economy more achievements inall development sectors are anticipated to be registered, the GTP reiterates.

 

This plan, as the GTP document makes it clear, is prepared taking into account the performance of the previous development plans; lessons learnedduring the implementations; and, based on the country’s development vision.Besides it has benefited from the consecutive consultative meetings held at theFederal and Regional level with the government bodies, private sector, highereducation institutions and professional associations, Women’s and Youthassociations, Religious organizations, Civil Society and Development partners.Main issues which are believed to be important for achieving fundamentalchanges in economic growth, social and human development and good governanceand help to achieve the objectives of the development plan are included in theplan.

 

The GTP is presented in tendetailed chapters. Chapter-I presents the PASDEP’s progress and achievementsduring the past five years (2005/06-2009/10); Chapter II presents bases and objectivesof the GTP; Chapter III clearly describes the Macroeconomic Framework andChapter IV briefly presents the costs and financing need of the plan. Chapter Vand VI presents the plans in the Economic and Social Sectors, respectively;Chapter VII focuses on the Good Governance and Capacity Building plans; ChapterVIII presents the plan on cross cutting issues; Chapter IX describes Opportunities,risks and challenges in implementing the GTP; and, Chapter X presents the Monitoringand Evaluation of the GTP.

 

Chapter I: Achievements and Challenges under the PASDEP


The PASDEP had been prepared based on the MDGs and the country’sdevelopment vision and its main objective was to lay out the directions foraccelerated, sustained, and people-centered economic development as well as topave the groundwork for the attainment of the MDGs by 2015. To achieve thismain objective the plan was built on eight pillar strategies which were:

 

1.            Buildingall-inclusive implementation capacity;

2.            Amassive push to accelerate growth;

3.            Creatingthe balance between economic development and population growth;

4.            Unleashingthe potentials of Ethiopia's women;

5.            Strengtheningthe infrastructure backbone of the country;

6.            Strengtheninghuman resource development;

7.            Managingrisk and volatility; and,

8.            Creatingemployment opportunities.

 

This section of the plan presentsthe achievements in the PASDEP period and to highlight some:

Macroeconomic performance:

During the PASDEP(2005/06-2009/10) at the 1999/00 prices, from the supply side, the economy hasbeen growing fast on average at 11% per annum. Agriculture, Industry andService on average have been growing at an average rate of 8%, 10.4% and 14.2%per annum, respectively. And Agriculture, Industry and Service sectors’contribution to GDP reached 41%, 13% and 46%, respectively. And Agriculture,Industry and Service sectors’ contribution to GDP reached 41%, 13% and 46%,respectively.

Table 1: Growth in GrossDomestic Product and Main sectors share as percent of GDP

Sector

Average growth target planed

(2005/06-2009/10)

Average growth achieved

(2005/06 - 2009/10)

Percentage share of GDP  (2009/10)

Base Case

High Case

GDP in 1999/00 prices (Real GDP)

7.0

10.0

11.0

100

Agriculture and allied activities

6.0

6.4

8.0

41

Industry

11.0

18.0

10.4

13

Services

7.0

10.3

14.2

46

N.B: Some figures might have beenupdated since the House Endorsed the plan.

Domestic revenue and externalresource share of GDP in 2004/05 were 14.6% and 4.3%, respectively. And in2009/10 it reached 15.0% and 3.9%, in the aforementioned order. In addition, in2004/05 the Total expenditure and poverty oriented expenditures as percent ofGDP were 23.3% and 13.2%, respectively where it reached 21.7% and 14.5% in2009/10. And also in 2004/05 budget deficit/including loan and grants/ itspercentage share to GDP was (4.4) % and reached (2.8) % in 2009/10.

Table 2: Import and Exporttrade share of GDP (%)

Item

2004/05

2005/06

2006/07

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

Average

Export (merchandise)

6.9

6.6

6.1

5.5

4.5

4.2

5.4

Import (merchandise)

29.5

30.3

26.3

25.5

23.8

24.7

26.1

Trade balance

-22.6

-23.7

-20.2

-20.1

-20.0

-20.5

-20.9

 

During the PASDEP period therewere inflationary and foreign reserve depletion challenges, the government hastaken policy and administrative measures to curb the situation. To control theinflationary pressure some of the measures taken include increasing Banks’reserve from 5% to 25% and increase deposit interest rate from 3% to 4%.

Agriculture and RuralDevelopment: In 2004/05 the total land covered by these main crops was9.8 million hectare and this increased to 11.2 million hectare in 2009/10. Withregards to production the total amount increased from 119.1 million quintals in2004/05 to 180.8 million quintal in 2009/10, whereas the total productivity ofcrops increased from 12.1 qt/hectare in 2004/05 to 15.7 qt/hectare in 2009/10.

Trade and Industry Development:During the planning period it was planned to create 2,153,742 new jobs and waspossible to create 1,465,361. In textile and clothing industries sub sector itwas planned to achieve, at the end of the planning period, export earnings atthe amount of 500 million USD and it was only possible to achieve 21.8 millionUSD export earnings. Concerning leather and leather products sub-sector fromshoes and other leather products it was planned to generate 221 million USDhowever it was only possible to raise 75.73 million USD at the end of the planperiod. Also in the sugar industry sub-sector at the end of the planning periodin the existing three sugar industries was planned to produce 1,510,683 tons ofsugar however it was possible to produce 1,468,915 tons. In the cement industrysub-sector it was planned to have a production capacity of 4.7 million ton ofcement per year and at the end of the planning period it reached a capacity ofproducing 1.17 million ton of cement per annum.

 

Mining: the volume ofinvestment in the sector increased from 62 million birr in 2004/05 to 12.7billion birr in 2009/10; revenue from the sector increased from 20 million birrin 2004/05 increased to 50.1 million birr in 2009/10 and mining income tax hasreached to 130 million birr. In addition, gold export has increased from 3439kgin 2004/05 to 4500kg in 2009/10 and tantalum export has increased from 92.5tons in 2004/05 to 171 tons in 2009/10. Besides, from artisanal miners it wasplanned to supply 5000 kg and 5153 kg gold has been supplied to foreign marketthrough the National Bank of Ethiopia and 129 million USD foreign currencieshas been secured. And it was planned to supply 3500 kg of gemstone minerals forforeign market and 4500 kg has been supplied to foreign market and 2 millionUSD has been secured.

Road Development: Duringthe PASDEP 852kms of roads strengthened; 4039kms upgraded; 2769kms of roadconstructed and 3660 temporary and heavy maintenance conducted. Excludingworeda[1]roads total road length increased from 36,400kms in 2004/05 to 49, 000kms in2009/10. Also roads in good condition increased from 64% in 2004/05 to 81% in2009/10 and time to reach all weather roads decreased from 5.7 hours in 2004/05to 3.7 hours in 2009/10.

Energy: In 2004/05 thetotal generated power was 714 MW and was planned to increase it to 3,270 MW atthe end of 2009/10 and it was able to generate 2000 MW at the end of theplanning period. It was planned to increase the number of towns and ruralvillages which have got access to electric power from 648 in 2004/05 to 6,000in 2009/10. Accordingly, 5,163 towns and rural villages have access toelectricity in 2009/10.

Telecommunications: Telecommunicationsin 2005/06 the number of mobile network capacity was 0.5 million and increasedto 25 million in 2009/10 and the number of customers increased from 0.56million in 2004/05 to 6.5 million in 2009/10. Number of fixed line and mobilephone users was 0.62 million and 0.02 million, respectively in 2004/05 and itincreased at the end of the plan period to 1 million and 0.187 million,respectively in 2009/10. Besides, telephone service available within 5kilometers radius area increased from 13% in 2004/05 to 62.14% in 2009/10.

Water: potable wateraccess in rural areas increased from 35% in 2004/05 to 65.8% in 2009/10 and inurban areas it increased from 80% in 2004/05 to 91.5% in 2009/10. And ingeneral, the national access to potable water increased from 36% in 2004/05 to68.5% in 2009/10.

Road transport: to ensureroad safety road safety council has been established; on main transportcorridors areas with high traffic accidents have been identified and trafficcontrol has been strengthened and deaths due to accidents decreased from 104deaths per 10 thousand accidents in 2004/05 to 52 deaths per 10 thousandaccidents.

Air Transport: At BoleInternational Airport Cargo terminal has been constructed for storage of fastperishable agricultural products. Airports at 7 different locations have beenbuilt and some are still on going, and the number of passengers and amount ofcargo, the number of passengers increased from 1.55 million in 2004/05 to 3.128million in 2009/10 and cargo amount, in ton kilometers, increased from 1.42billion in 2004/05 to 2.84 billion in 2009/10.

Urban Development:  During the PASDEP it was planned to construct396,000 new houses; establish 10,000 small enterprises; and, create jobopportunities for 200,000 urban city dwellers, it was able to achieve at theend of 2009/10 in all regions and city administration to build 213,000 houses;establish 4,306 small construction enterprises; and, 176,000 permanent andtemporary jobs were created. Among the total constructed houses 72,000 housesare passed to the beneficiaries and hence 931 million birr[2]has been raised as pre-payment.

Education: GrossEnrolment Rate for grades 1-8 increased from 79.8% in 2004/05 to 94.2% in2009/10; Primary Net Enrolment rate also increased from 68.5% in 2004/05 to86.5% in 2009/10. The disparity among male and female students GER narrowedfrom 0.75:1 in 2004/05 to 0.93:1 in 2009/10.Regarding Secondary SchoolEducation (Grade 9-12): in 2004/05 there were 706 secondary schools and thisincreased to 1,202 in 2009/10. In 2004/05 the GER for Secondary school (9-10)was 27.3% and it increased to 38.1% in 2009/10. The Net Enrolment Rate forSecondary School (9-10) increased from 11.8% in 2004/05 to 12.6% in 2009/10.Besides, with regard to Higher Education: in 2004/05 the number of undergraduate students in Public Universitieswas 78,232 and it increased to 185,788 in 2009/10. The share of undergraduatefemale students in the public universities increased from 24% in 2004/05 to 29%in 2009/10.

Health: it was planned totrain 30,000 health extension workers 33,819 were trained in the past fiveyears and went to different rural kebeles[3]in all over the country. The number of health posts increased from 4,211 in2004/05 to 14,416 in 2009/10. In 2005/06 the number of health centers was 644and it reached 1,787 in 2009/10. The number of public Hospitals increased from79 in 2004/05 to 111 in 2009/10.  Thenumber of women who are in child bearing age and using contraceptives increasedfrom 15% in 2004/05 to 65% in 2009/10. Prenatal service coverage increased from46% in 2004/05 to 63 in 2009/10.  Andpostnatal service coverage increased from 15% in 2004/05 to 30% in 2009/10.Trained birth assisted delivery increased from 13% in 2004/05 to 25% in 2009/10although the target was to reach 32%. In general the number of mothers’ deathrelated to delivery decreased from 871/100,000 in 2004/05 to 590/100,000 in2009/10. Under-five mortality rate decreased from 123/1000 in 2004/05 to101/1000 in 2009/10. Until 2009/10 about 10 million households living inmalaria epidemic areas received 2 mosquito bed nets and hence the coverageincreased from 1% in 2004/05 to 100% in 2009/10. TB cure rate increased from65% in 2004/05 to 67 in 2009/10.

Cross cutting issues: inthis section of the plan document on the performance during the PASDEP periodhighlighted achievements and challenges faced in Gender Development andChildren, Youth and Sports, Culture and Tourism, Science and Technology, and Environment.

Besides, the other issuepresented briefly is the Good governance and democratizationand it highlighted that to monitor justice’s system administration and providecorrecting advises and to institutionalize sustainable, transparent andaccountable public administration the Ombudsman, Human Rights Commission andAnti-corruption commission have been established. During PASDEP the main planwas to give woreda administrations high power and responsibility and grant cityadministrations and mayors’ offices self-administration right to deliverquality service to the people; enhance the lower administrative bodies’implementation capacity; and address the shortage of skilled manpower andeffort has been made to improve rural communication infrastructure.

The last part of this section ofthe plan presented the challenges and good practices witnessed in implementingthe PASDEP.

Chapter II: Bases, Strategies and Objectives of the GTP

The GTP document in its ChapterII explains that ‘The country’s long term vision, achievements of PASDEP andlessons drawn from its implementation are the bases for conceiving the nextfive year Growth and Transformation Plan.’

Ethiopia’s long-term vision is : to become a  country  where democratic  rule,  good-governance and social  justice reigns, upon  the involvement and  free will of itspeoples; and once extricating itself from poverty and becomes a middle-incomeeconomy.” 

 Its vision in the economic sector is: to build an economy which has a modern andproductive agricultural sector with enhanced technology and an industrialsector that plays a leading role in the economy; to sustain economicdevelopment and secure social justice; and, increase per capita income ofcitizens so that it reaches at the level of those in middle-income countries.”

And also the major objectives ofthe plan, as describe in the document, include

·        Maintain at least an average real GDP growthrate of 11% and meet the Millennium Development goals,

·        Expand and ensure the qualities of education andhealth services thereby achieving the MDGs in the social sectors,

·        Establish favorable conditions for sustainablestate building through the creation of stable democratic and developmentalstate

·        Ensure growth sustainability by realizing allthe above objectives within stable macroeconomic framework.

 


 

Chapter III: Pillar Strategiesof the GTP

 

Though the predecessor development plan, PASDEP, has eight pillar strategiesto stand on the GTP rather has seven and they are presented in the document indetail. However, here it is presented in summary. Hence, Ethiopia’s strategyfor sustaining the rapid and broad-based growth path for the next five years2010/11-2014/5, hinges on the following pillars:

 

1.       Sustaining faster and equitable economicgrowth

2.       Maintaining agriculture as a major source ofeconomic growth

3.       Creating favorable conditions for the industryto play key role in the economy

4.       Enhancing expansion and quality ofinfrastructure development

5.       Enhancing expansion and quality of socialdevelopment

6.       Building capacity and deepen good governance

7.       Promote women and youth empowerment andequitable benefit

 




[1] Woreda(also spelled wereda) is an administrative division (managed by a localgovernment), equivalent to a district.

[2]Birr is the local currency

[3] Akebele ("neighborhood") is the smallest administrative unit similarto ward a neighborhood or a localized and delimited group of people.

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Tags: GTP, HoPRs, M&E, MDGs, PRSPs

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